PUBLICATIONS
US Monetary Policy spillovers and emerging markets: the role of trade credit
with M. London
Journal of International Economics (2025)
This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firmto-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when financial conditions tighten. This later effect only exists in pre-existing relationships, where trust can be more readily established, compared to new partnerships. Given the widespread use of trade credit in emerging markets, this buffering role is crucial for mitigating financial pressures in these economies.
SUERF Policy Brief (WP version)
Impact of the ECB Quantitative Easing on the International Investment Position
with R. Cezar
International Economics (2021)
This paper aims at estimating the impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) implemented by the ECB on external assets and liabilities recorded in the International Investment Position (IIP). Indeed, monetary policy affects the prices of securities and exchange rates, as well as international capital flows. These movements affect the IIP and can trigger important global imbalances and financial stability issues. Our analysis focuses on France. We find that QE affected all the items composing its IIP. Announcements played a stronger role compared to amounts purchased. We also decompose changes in the IIP into flows and valuation effects and show that the latter was the most reactive to the programme. Finally, we quantify the overall effect by establishing counterfactual scenarios in the absence of QE. The strong impact observed initially was rapidly counterbalanced; suggesting an over-adjustment phenomenon at the beginning of the programme.
ONGOING RESEARCH
The effects of US Monetary Policies shocks on capital flows, with J. Schmidt and U. Szczerbowicz, work in progress
The effects of US monetary policies on bank lending in the euro area, preliminary